Swine flu warning - be careful if you own pigs

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15 years 3 weeks ago #266110 by beedee
PG, I dont think that is inflammatory at all. Just sad as I cant follow any of the guidelines, and I doubt many other LSBers can..
I do wonder if the S/flu does spread.. and its likely to as its the sporting idealists that are the most likely and they wont give up their w/end sport meetings or heaven forbid the beginning of duck shooting, where tis the time when strangers enter the lands of the gentry.. a big chance of spread
In my case,..Due to the drought the ducks have left the ponds, but some snivvelling person sneaking through could start off the return of the virus to the piggies on other slightly more public accessible land.
a stretch of the possible facts , but still a possibility

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15 years 3 weeks ago #266112 by Pumpkingirl

beedee;245678 wrote: P Just sad as I cant follow any of the guidelines, and I doubt many other LSBers can..

It's almost certainly fellow LSBers who put each other at risk, so keeping fellow pig owning LSBers away from your pig would be the most prudent thing to do.

I actually think poultry-keeping LSBers who are breeding rare lines should consider something similar.

When my parents were poultry farmers (and so were many of their friends) they just had a simple rule - you don't go near each other's poultry, nor take your car near their sheds. It was only recently (10 years after he retired from poultry) that my Dad finally saw the inside of a friend's poultry farm.

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15 years 3 weeks ago #266126 by Cinsara

Pumpkingirl;245673 wrote: However if you go with that definition, no-one dies of HIV/AIDS or cancer either.. they die of secondary infections or because their organs fail.

So I presume the logic is, if they hadn't got this flu, they probably wouldn't have died.


No no you misunderstand my thought pattern [:0] I wasn't meaning they didn't die as a result of the flu, I was meaning that the secondary infection of pneumonia could account for so many young healthy people succuming as opposed to the flu virus itself which young people can usually fend off.

>

Save the Earth... it's the only planet with chocolate!

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15 years 3 weeks ago #266127 by Pumpkingirl

Cinsara;245695 wrote: I was meaning that the secondary infection of pneumonia could account for so many young healthy people succuming as opposed to the flu virus itself which young people can usually fend off.

Sorry Cinsara, I did misunderstand what you were trying to say :)

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15 years 3 weeks ago #266128 by moggy
Well the one "healthy" young person in NZ with this flu who still remains in hospital, is there because he was an asthma sufferer prior to catching it. As asthma is more prevalent in the young, this could account for the young being more subsceptible.

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15 years 3 weeks ago #266129 by Cinsara

Pumpkingirl;245696 wrote: Sorry Cinsara, I did misunderstand what you were trying to say :)


's ok :D

>

Save the Earth... it's the only planet with chocolate!

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15 years 3 weeks ago #266137 by lady yank
Some physicians believe cytokine storms are responsible for the deaths among young people.:(

Don't make me release the flying monkeys!

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15 years 3 weeks ago #266142 by poaka
Flying pigs now flying monkeys whatever next polar bears in bikinis!!!

Statistically, 6 out of 7 dwarves are not Happy. [:)]

3 Beef Roasts and Mince
40 Chicken Roasts and Omelettes
25 Pigeon Pies left after Falcon dined out,. 5 pheasants
plus 3 pig dogs

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15 years 3 weeks ago #266156 by moggy
It is reall starting to look like a storm in a teacup. the worls health organisation says there have only been 7 confirmed deaths globally. Starting to look less harmful than your ordinary winter flu, which kills way more than that.

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15 years 3 weeks ago #266161 by Sue
PG, those Pork Industry Biosecurity precautions look so familiar!
You could just about replace 'pork' with 'poultry'

They are just the everyday sensible precautions any pig or poultry farm should take, not specially written for any possible outbreak of 'media disease'

As you say it would be wise if the LSB'rs took note and did as much as they could along the same lines, to protect their animals from diseases which are already here-then if something nasty popped up, you were already protecting them.

Sue
Labrador lover for yonks, breeder of pedigree Murray Grey cattle for almost as long, and passionate poultry person for more years than I care to count.

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15 years 3 weeks ago #266162 by poaka
Swine flu hysteria is what they are calling it on the net. I've already filed it with Y2K ,Avian, Global Cooling , Global Warming , Ozone hole etc etc. In defence of the gummint the Man from the Ministry , Big Tony , says calm and caution ...don't panic Captain Mannering !!!!

Statistically, 6 out of 7 dwarves are not Happy. [:)]

3 Beef Roasts and Mince
40 Chicken Roasts and Omelettes
25 Pigeon Pies left after Falcon dined out,. 5 pheasants
plus 3 pig dogs

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15 years 3 weeks ago #266183 by Simkin

moggy;245646 wrote: Tigger, not having a go at you, just the way the media is reporting it
Shock horror 1000 people infected!!
but put it into context
greater mexico city has a population of 22 million
so 1000 people with flu like symptoms (note not all have actually been confirmed to actually have swine flue, or even any sort of flu) means that
with 1000 infected that is 0.000045% of the population so far, might (or then again, might not) have been infected
suddenly it doesn't not seem quite so bad does it? It certainly does not make such a good headline.
As for 1000 people in a major NZ city having flu at any one time, I don't think that unreasonable in the flu season. Most with it won't bother going to the doctors. And quite possibly may be lower these days, but that is because many people get the flu jab in NZ.

Ok, here we go.

To use the numbers you are quoting plus the 100 dead:

1000 people infected, 100 dead - this translates to a mortality rate of 10%. Nothing to worry about according to your interpretation.

22 million people live in Mexico City. As you already have calculated, 1000 infected people are 0.000045% of the population. The chance of meeting one of these 1000 infected people in a city of 22 million is 1 in 22 000. Yet, these 10 Rangitoto students have all been infected while they were in Mexico City. Bad luck? Maybe.

Just in case you didn't hear this: the Minister of Health was interviewed and that exact question - why has a certain person not been contacted by the government - was put to him. His reply? I paraphrase: 'we are using the media to alert the population and rely on the people to come forward.'

We don't know what is going to happen but if a pandemic strikes - don't assume that, if you should get this flu, you can just walk into a supermarket and get some paracetamol tablets or lozenges or face masks. We as a nation rely on people to be proactive and forward planning and have for instance a small quantity of paracetamol or similar at home. And it will be people who have bad mouthed the media and our government who will have to go begging to their neighbours to get some paracetamol to take one example.

I've just been to the supermarket. One brand (the NZ made one) of paracetamol is sold out. This is reassuring. Some people do take responsibility.

And thanks, PG, for posting the pig industry warning. I've been to a talk by Dr Lance Jennings, New Zealand's Influenza expert, and was able to ask him several questions after the talk. It is the possible recombination of DNA within an organism that has more than one flu strain present that is the breeding ground for new viruses. And the next new one might have an even higher infectiousness and/or mortality rate.

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15 years 3 weeks ago #266185 by reggit
This is why I feel for agencies responsible for this sort of thing (including civil defence). They have to prepare for things which might never happen, hoping they will never happen.

If they raise the alarm or start proceedings, and nothing does happen, they are accused of being alarmist/wasting taxpayer money, and next time around people don't take them seriously (think SARS/bird flu).

If they don't do anything to warn people or be prepared, or go into action at the first sign of problems, if something DOES happen they are irresponsible and to blame for the tragedies that unfold.

I think I would rather have the first. Problem is that the precautionary approach means that you never really know what you may have prevented happening by your actions, so you never get the credit for it.

Those who think the media is overhyping it, fine, take from the reports what you will, get on the internet, find out the bits that you think the media is missing, reach your own conclusions and prepare (or not) in your own way. Simple as that really [;)]

I imagine that if it did turn out to be a major issue you'd be pretty pissed if noone warned you!!

Take a break...while I take care of your home, your block, your pets, your stock! [;)] PM me...

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15 years 3 weeks ago #266186 by NZ Appaloosas
Simkin, I was watching Fox News this AM, and they had this guy on who was involved with the flu pandemic that swept the US in 1976 (we were in the Middle East then, so missed the "excitement"). He said that basically, with 100 reported dead, the actual sick number would be in the 10s of thousands rather than the 1000 being reported.

Diane


Featuring Wap Spotted, sire of the first Wap Spot 2 grandget in Southern Hemisphere and New Zealand

On the first day God created horses. On the second day He spotted the best ones.

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15 years 3 weeks ago #266191 by Seaside
Without wanting to topple off the fence that I'm sitting on, I would imagine the official confirmed dead and infected is so low right now because they are waiting for the lab results for most of the 'suspected' cases.

And in defence of the ozone layer and its hole, that is a fact, not hyped up cyber-theory. That's how come you can sit in the sun wearing SPF 2 in Greece and turn golden brown, whereas in NZ (bearing in mind the hole is over Antarctica) you go out for 15 minutes on a sunny and turn beetroot. Or something like that.

I was raised by a mother who had conspiracy-theory-itis, so I tend to research a subject myself before jumping on or off bandwagons.

Think I'm getting a sore throat.....

Kids, beasts, and chillies in Swannanoa South.
www.farmaway.co.nz

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